Impact of Forex Policy Reversal and Naira Depreciation on the Nigerian Economy

The Nigerian economy experienced significant shifts in import expenditure and forex policies during the fourth quarter of 2023, sparking discussions on its implications for poverty alleviation, economic stability, and budgetary planning.

In the fourth quarter of 2023, Nigerians spent N1.39 trillion on importing seven out of the 43 items previously restricted by the Central Bank of Nigeria from accessing foreign exchange on its official platform. This surge in import expenditure was part of a larger trend, with citizens importing goods worth N4.29 trillion throughout 2023, marking a significant increase from the N2.14 trillion worth of commodities imported in 2022.

 

Initially, in 2015, the CBN classified approximately 41 import items as ineligible for forex, forcing importers to seek FX from the black market at higher rates. However, last October, the CBN lifted the ban on importers of 43 items, allowing them to purchase foreign exchange in the Nigerian forex market. This reversal led to a notable increase in imported goods from N1.29 trillion in the third quarter of 2023 to N1.39 trillion.

 

The World Bank's December 2023 Nigeria Development Update report highlighted that the removal of import restrictions could lift about 1.3 million people out of poverty by lowering prices and increasing purchasing power. However, concerns have been raised regarding the impact of the forex ban list by the CBN. Muda Yusuf, Director of the Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise, criticized the list, stating that it creates confusion in the trade policy.

 

Financial analyst Johnson Chukwu emphasized the need for the government to prioritize local production to reduce dependence on imports and stabilize the economy. Meanwhile, the Senate cautioned against increasing the budget size through a supplementary budget, urging the government to utilize excess savings resulting from the depreciation of the naira to fund deficits.

 

Senator Tokunbo Abiru advised against expanding the budget, suggesting that gains should be used to reduce deficits. Despite the volatility of the naira, it was deemed premature to determine the budget's workability. Additionally, the devaluation of the naira prompted discussions on the impact on government revenue and expenditure, with calls for policy adjustments to mitigate adverse effects.

 

Economists emphasized the need for the government to review policies and consider expenditure adjustments or supplementary budgets to address the challenges posed by the depreciating naira and its implications for the economy and budgetary planning.


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