Global trade is expected to rebound in 2024, with a projected growth of 2.3 percent, aligning with the anticipated global output growth. This marks a return to more typical trade patterns after a year of significant weakness. The World Bank's latest Global Economic Prospects report highlighted that global trade in goods and services experienced minimal growth in 2023, expanding by only 0.2 percent, the slowest rate outside of global recessions in the past 50 years.

The report noted that goods trade contracted in 2023, primarily due to declines in major advanced economies and a slowdown in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). This contraction in goods trade was the first sustained decline outside of a global recession in the past two decades. Additionally, global supply chain pressures have normalized after reaching record lows in mid-2023, reflecting stagnant goods trade and the diminishing disruptions caused by the pandemic. Services trade also slowed in the latter half of 2023, following an initial post-pandemic rebound.

Looking ahead, it is anticipated that goods trade will begin to expand again, while the contribution of services to total trade growth is expected to decrease, reverting to pre-pandemic patterns. However, the responsiveness of global trade to global output is expected to remain lower than pre-pandemic levels in the near term, reflecting subdued investment growth, as investment tends to be more trade-intensive than other types of expenditures.

The report also forecasts a return of global tourist arrivals to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, although the recovery may be delayed in some countries due to postponed reopening. The global trade growth forecast for 2024 has been revised down by 0.5 percentage point since June, reflecting weaker-than-expected growth in China and global investment. Consequently, the projected trade recovery for 2021-2024 is the weakest following a global recession in the past 50 years.

In Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics reported that total trade in the third quarter of 2023 amounted to N18,804.29 billion, with exports valued at N10,346.60 billion and total imports at N8,457.68 billion. Total exports saw a significant increase of 60.78 percent compared to the second quarter of 2023 and 74.36 percent compared to the same quarter in 2022. Similarly, total imports increased by 47.70 percent compared to the second quarter of 2023 and by 33.33 percent compared to the corresponding quarter of 2022.

The World Bank has projected a slowdown in global growth for the third consecutive year, with a decrease from 2.6 percent in the previous year to 2.4 percent in 2024, nearly three-quarters of a percentage point below the average of the 2010s. Developing economies are expected to grow by just 3.9 percent, more than one percentage point below the average of the previous decade. Low-income countries are forecasted to grow by 5.5 percent, weaker than previously anticipated.

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